Measuring and Monitoring Churn at the State Level: Methods and Data Sources
This brief summarizes, “ACA Coverage Expansions: Measuring and Monitoring Churn at the State Level,” one of a series of SHADAC white papers commissioned by the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE) to explore innovative uses of data resources and analytic approaches that states can apply to monitor and evaluate health care reform efforts. The white paper, by Colin Planalp, Brett Fried, and Julie Sonier, with contributions from Amy Potthoff-Anderson and Jennifer Ricards, is available here.
The SHARE Quarterly Update includes news, announcements, presentations, publications, and upcoming events related to the SHARE grant program, its grantees, and their funded research.
SHARE Quarterly Update: January - March 2015
Announcements
SHARE at the 2015 AcademyHealth Annual Research Meeting in Minneapolis
Jill Rissi (Portland State University), Erin Taylor (RAND), Richard Hirth (University of Michigan), Karin Rhodes (University of Pennsylvania), and Sarah Gollust (University of Minnesota) will be presenting findings from their SHARE-funded research at the ARM.
Karen Brodsky (Health Management Associates), Angie Fertig (Medica Research Institute), Erin Taylor, and Sarah Gollust will be presenting SHARE findings at the State Health Research and Policy Interest Group Meeting preceding the ARM on June 13th.
We will send out full details on the times and locations of these presentations, as well as presentations by SHADAC researchers, as the conference approaches.
SHARE Podcast Available: Governance and Impacts of Oregon's Coordinated Care Organizations
Dr. Jill Rissi and Dr. Neal Wallace, both of Portland State University, presented findings from their SHARE-funded analysis of Oregon’s Coordinated Care Organizations (CCOs) on a February 19th webinar hosted by SHARE. Drs. Rissi and Wallace discussed the organizational structures and operational approaches of Oregon’s CCOs and presented preliminary findings about how CCOs—and the variation among them—impact health care access, use, quality, and costs. The researchers reported extensive variation in CCO organizational configurations and leadership arrangements, and preliminary analyses show mixed impacts on healthcare access, use, and cost by CCO type. A podcast of the event, along with supporting presentation materials, is now available.
SHARE Briefs Examine Fluctuations in Eligibility for ACA Coverage Assistance, the Rural Implications of Medicaid Expansion, and the Prediction of High-Need Medicaid Enrollees
SHARE released three new briefs highlighting findings from SHARE-funded research projects.
"Sub-Annual Income Fluctuations and Eligibility for Coverage Assistance under the ACA"summarizes an article by Lara D. Shore-Sheppard (Williams College) in the December 2014 issue of Health Services Research. The analysis looked at monthly patterns in income dynamics across income categories eligible for coverage assistance under the ACA and then examined the determinants of movement between categories to estimate the impact of income shifts on coverage eligibility. Dr. Shore-Sheppard found that ACA coverage expansion populations experience high levels of income fluctuation. This fluctuation was associated with a variety of factors, with employment changes having a particularly significant impact.
"Rural Implications of Medicaid Expansion under the Affordable Care Act," details research from Dr. Erika Ziller and her co-authors at the Maine Rural Health Research Center (University of Southern Maine). The authors used data from the Medicaid Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), linked with state-level Medicaid policy data and county-level primary care data, to examine the ways in which Medicaid expansion will differentially impact rural individuals. They found that low-income rural residents are less likely than their urban counterparts to live in states that are expanding Medicaid, while simultaneously standing benefit more from expansion in terms of coverage, health status, and access to care.
"The Capacity of Self-Reported Health Measures to Predict High-Need Medicaid Enrolles," from Dr. Lindsey Leininger of Mathematica Policy Research, describes an analysis of the capacity of self-reported health measures to predict need for medical care among new enrollees in a Medicaid waiver program for previously ineligible childless adults in Wisconsin. The analysis indicated that a number of self-reported health measures meet established statistical thresholds for predictive modeling tools and can be used to identify high-need Medicaid members for whom a claims history is unavailable.
SHARE Research on Individual Mandate in American Economic Review
Martin Hackman (Yale University), Jonathan Kolstad (University of Pennsylvania), and Amanda Kowalski (Yale University) published findings from their SHARE research in the current issue of the American Economic Review. In the paper, "Adverse Selection and an Individual Mandate: When Theory Meets Practice," the researchers outline a risk selection model that incorporates the individual mandate and uses parameters estimated using data from Massachusetts on enrollment, premiums, and costs (data collected by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and aggregated by SNL Financial). Using the model, the authors found that premiums and average costs decreased significantly in response to the individual mandate, with an annual total welfare gain of $51.1 million across the state.
Grantee Spotlight
Angie Fertig, PhD
Dr. Angela Fertig is Principal Investigator on a SHARE-funded project to evaluate the level of pent-up demand for health care among new enrollees in a regional health plan in Minnesota. Dr. Fertig is a Research Investigator for Medica Research Institute in Minnetonka, Minnesota, where her work encompasses topics such as regional variations in health reform implementation and disparities within low-income populations. Learn more.
SHARE Publications and Presentations
Fertig, A. March 3, 2015. "Pent-up Health Care Demand after the Affordable Care Act." Presentation. St. Paul, MN: Minnesota Health Services Research Conference.
Gross, T. March 16, 2015. "The Effect of Public Health Insurance on the Hospital Industry." Presentation. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Health Economics Seminar.
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