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2023 NHIS Early Release: Estimates from Quarter 3 (July to September) Hold Steady

Elizabeth Lukanen, Deputy Director
Andrea Stewart, Research Fellow
March 06, 2024

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) has released quarterly estimates of health insurance coverage beginning in July 2022 through September 2023 from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) as part of the NHIS Early Release Program. Each quarter covers a three-month span, and this blog specifically looks at survey data from the most recent quarter (Q3 - July to September 2023) and notes any differences compared to the same time period in 2022.

Between Q3 of 2022 and Q3 of 2023, rates of uninsurance, public coverage, and private coverage for adults (age 18-64) remained mostly unchanged. There was a small increase in the rate of public coverage for all ages and a small decrease in the rate of uninsurance overall, but these changes were not statistically significant.

Figure 1: Health Insurance Coverage Rates by Type (Adults Age 18-64), Q3 2022 vs. Q3 2023

NHIS survey data early release estimates for insurance coverage in a figure.
There were, however, statistically significant decreases in uninsurance rates among adults with a family income of 200-400% of the federal poverty level (FPL), and non-Hispanic, Asian adults. Regionally, rates of uninsurance and public coverage were unchanged from 2022 to 2023. The rate of public coverage saw a statistically significant decrease in the Northeast, but otherwise remained unchanged.
 
In April 2022, states resumed normal eligibility redetermination procedures for Medicaid enrollees, a process put on hold during the pandemic - commonly known as “the Medicaid unwinding,” or simply “the unwinding.” Evidence from administrative data suggests that many people have lost Medicaid coverage during this process.1  While these newly released Q3 data include a portion of the unwinding period, these coverages shifts are not being detected. We will need to continue to monitor federal survey data to gain more information into the coverage impacts of the unwinding process.
 
For some of SHADAC’s work in this area that uses other survey sources, please see our Tracking Health Insurance Coverage During the Unwinding: Monthly Data from the Household Pulse Survey blog post where we monitor Household Pulse survey data.
 
You can also learn more on this topic via our blog series that was produced for State Health & Value Strategies (SHVS):
 
 

[1] Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). (2023, December 18). Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment: Child and Youth Data Snapshot. https://www.medicaid.gov/sites/default/files/2023-12/medicaid-unwinding-child-data-snapshot.pdf