2014 CPS Status Update: Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance

April 23, 2015: In March 2015 SHADAC researchers Kathleen Call and Joanna Turner attended a meeting of experts on income, poverty, and health insurance coverage in the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS). The U.S. Census Bureau hosted the meeting with the purpose of acquiring feedback on the Census Bureau’s plans for the upcoming September 2015 data release.  A recording of the meeting is available here.

Background: 2014 CPS

Beginning with the 2014 CPS questionnaire (which asked about income and coverage in 2013) the Census Bureau implemented redesigned income and health insurance coverage questions. The income questions were redesigned to improve reporting by taking advantage of the automated questionnaire environment and updating questions on retirement income. The health insurance coverage questions were redesigned to improve the measure of past year coverage, add a point in time measure, collect additional information related to health reform (exchange participation and employer-offers of coverage), and collect coverage by month. For further information about the redesigned CPS health insurance coverage questions, please see SHADAC Brief #39. When the Census Bureau implemented the redesigned questions in 2014, the entire sample received the redesigned health insurance coverage questions, while the sample was split for the income questions: 5/8ths received the traditional questions and 3/8ths received the redesigned questions (Figure 1).

In January 2015, the 3/8ths file was released, and it is currently available here; however, a bridge was not created between the old income questions and the redesigned income questions.  The two files can be combined without a bridge, but SHADAC recommends that analysts continue to use only the 5/8ths file until a bridge is available.

Upcoming Data Release: 2015 CPS

For the 2015 CPS questionnaire, the entire sample received the redesigned health insurance coverage questions and the redesigned income questions. There was also a parallel sample of about 28,000 addresses where respondents were asked the old income and health insurance coverage questions. The parallel sample will allow analysts to:

• Compare 2012 estimates with 2014 estimates
• Compare health insurance coverage between the old and redesigned questions for 2014 estimates.

The results from the parallel sample will be released as a research file with a working paper (date yet to be determined).

Discussion

New Health Insurance Coverage Content: Estimates Delayed

It is taking longer than originally planned to develop the editing and imputation routines to take advantage of the new health insurance coverage questions. The 2014 estimates, released in September 2015, will not have the new content on exchanges, employer offer, or monthly estimates. The variables available will be the same as last year. The point-in-time measure will be released with the 2014 NHIS estimates.

Comparing 2013 and 2014 Income Estimates: Two Options under Consideration

Much of the discussion at the meeting was focused on the income questions and how to compare 2013 estimates from the split sample with 2014 estimates. Two options were considered, and the Census Bureau will make a final decision soon:

1. Use only the 3/8^ths sample with the redesigned questions for 2013
2. Create a combined file 3/8^ths+5/8^ths by modeling a bridge between the methods so there is a full file of "redesigned" questions for 2013

If the Census Bureau chooses to use Option 1 (only the 3/8^ths file for official 2013 income estimates), they will still release an income-consistent file (Option 2) for research. SHADAC recommends using the Option 2 file for comparing 2013 with 2014 estimates so there is sufficient sample for estimates by state and sub-populations.